Queretaro vs Deportivo Toluca: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Queretarovs
Deportivo TolucaThe model puts Deportivo Toluca at 52%. The model leans toward Deportivo Toluca. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Deportivo Toluca.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Queretaro are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Deportivo Toluca are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Queretaro have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Toluca have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Queretaro have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Queretaro will be without Coronel, Villanueva C.O..
- Deportivo Toluca will be without Ruiz M., Castro, Dias Fernandes.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Queretaro at 24%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Deportivo Toluca at 52%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Deportivo Toluca. Queretaro is priced at 3.895. The draw is priced at 3.78. Deportivo Toluca is priced at 1.81.
Queretaro have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Deportivo Toluca have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Queretaro have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo Toluca have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Queretaro or Deportivo Toluca?
Our model rates Deportivo Toluca as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Queretaro vs Deportivo Toluca?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Queretaro wins, 5 draws, 6 Deportivo Toluca wins.
Match statistics
Queretaro
- 2Abascia
- 4Garcia
- 5Homenchenko
- 9Avila
- 12Mileo Vidotti
- 13Reyes Di.
- 16Gimenez
- 20Alcala
- 24Duarte
- 25Allison Revuelta
- 27Parra
- Coronel (Questionable)
- Villanueva C.O. (Missing Player)
Deportivo Toluca
- 5Romero
- 6Pereira
- 9Vega Al.
- 10Angulo
- 17Garcia Bri.
- 20Gallardo J.
- 21López É. I.
- 22Garcia
- 25Del Villar
- 29Diaz Price J.R.
- 35Gutierrez
- Ruiz M. (Missing Player)
- Castro (Missing Player)
- Dias Fernandes (Missing Player)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:1 | 10 |
| 2 |  Tijuana | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 10 |
| 3 |  Monterrey | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12:5 | 9 |
| 4 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Deportivo Toluca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:3 | 7 |
| 6 |  Pumas UNAM | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:5 | 7 |
| 7 |  Puebla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 8 | Queretaro | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 7 |
| 9 |  Guadalajara | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 7 |
| 10 |  Cruz Azul | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8:8 | 6 |
| 11 |  Leon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5:5 | 6 |
| 12 |  Club Necaxa | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 13 |  Atlante | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 14 |  Pachuca | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6:6 | 3 |
| 15 |  Atletico San Luis | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4:8 | 2 |
| 16 |  Tigres de la UANL | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6:10 | 1 |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2:8 | 0 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2:13 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.