Japan vs Ecuador: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Japanvs
EcuadorThe model puts Japan at 49%. The model leans toward Japan. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Japan.
- +The head-to-head record favours Japan (1-2-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Japan have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ecuador have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Japan have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Japan is priced at 2.085.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Japan at 49%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Ecuador at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Japan. Japan is priced at 2.085. The draw is priced at 3.24. Ecuador is priced at 3.74.
Japan have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Japan have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Ecuador have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Japan or Ecuador?
Our model rates Japan as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Japan vs Ecuador?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Japan wins, 2 draws, 0 Ecuador wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.