Deportivo de A Coruna vs Valencia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Deportivo de A Corunavs
ValenciaThe model puts Deportivo de A Coruna at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Deportivo de A Coruna (8-5-2).
- −Recent form favours Deportivo de A Coruna.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Deportivo de A Coruna have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Valencia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo de A Coruna have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Deportivo de A Coruna is priced at 2.635.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Deportivo de A Coruna at 37%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Valencia at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Deportivo de A Coruna is priced at 2.635. The draw is priced at 3.184. Valencia is priced at 2.784.
Deportivo de A Coruna have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Valencia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Deportivo de A Coruna have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Valencia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 40% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Deportivo de A Coruna or Valencia?
Our model rates Deportivo de A Coruna as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Deportivo de A Coruna vs Valencia?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Deportivo de A Coruna wins, 5 draws, 2 Valencia wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Alaves | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:1 | 4 |
| 2 |  Espanyol | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Atletico Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 6 |  Racing de Santander | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 7 |  Elche | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 8 | Deportivo de A Coruna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 9 |  Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 10 |  Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Celta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Athletic Bilbao | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  Malaga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 19 |  Getafe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
| 20 |  Levante UD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.