Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Lugano: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Maccabi Tel Avivvs
LuganoThe model puts Maccabi Tel Aviv at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Lugano.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Maccabi Tel Aviv have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lugano have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv is priced at 2.336.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Maccabi Tel Aviv at 39%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Lugano at 35%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Maccabi Tel Aviv is priced at 2.336. The draw is priced at 3.5. Lugano is priced at 2.945.
Maccabi Tel Aviv have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Maccabi Tel Aviv have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Lugano have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Lugano are on 5 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Maccabi Tel Aviv or Lugano?
Our model rates Maccabi Tel Aviv as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Lugano?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Maccabi Tel Aviv wins, 0 draws, 0 Lugano wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.