Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Liverpoolvs
Nottingham ForestThe model puts Liverpool at 65%. The model leans toward Liverpool. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Nottingham Forest (4-3-8).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Liverpool have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nottingham Forest have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Liverpool have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Liverpool is priced at 1.43.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Liverpool at 65%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Nottingham Forest at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Liverpool. Liverpool is priced at 1.43. The draw is priced at 4.7. Nottingham Forest is priced at 7.
Liverpool have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Nottingham Forest have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Liverpool have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Nottingham Forest have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Liverpool or Nottingham Forest?
Our model rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 65% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Liverpool wins, 3 draws, 8 Nottingham Forest wins.
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Manchester City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Newcastle United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Bournemouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Brentford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 19 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 20 |  Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.