Crystal Palace vs Manchester City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Crystal Palacevs
Manchester CityThe model puts Manchester City at 57%. The model leans toward Manchester City. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Crystal Palace (9-4-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Crystal Palace have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Manchester City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Crystal Palace have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Manchester City is priced at 1.58.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 3 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Crystal Palace at 21%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Manchester City at 57%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Manchester City. Crystal Palace is priced at 5.35. The draw is priced at 4.24. Manchester City is priced at 1.58.
Crystal Palace have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Manchester City have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Crystal Palace have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Manchester City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Crystal Palace or Manchester City?
Our model rates Manchester City as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Manchester City?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Crystal Palace wins, 4 draws, 2 Manchester City wins.
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Liverpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 | Manchester City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Newcastle United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Bournemouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Brentford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Nottingham Forest | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 19 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 20 |  Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.