Sunderland vs Fulham: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sunderlandvs
FulhamThe model puts Fulham at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Sunderland.
- +The head-to-head record favours Fulham (4-4-7).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sunderland have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fulham have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sunderland have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Fulham is priced at 2.44.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sunderland at 32%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Fulham at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Sunderland is priced at 2.87. The draw is priced at 3.38. Fulham is priced at 2.44.
Sunderland have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Fulham have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sunderland have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Fulham have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sunderland or Fulham?
Our model rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Fulham?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Sunderland wins, 4 draws, 7 Fulham wins.
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 5 |  Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Liverpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Manchester City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Newcastle United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Bournemouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Brentford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Nottingham Forest | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 18 |  Manchester United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 19 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 20 |  Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.