Rio Ave vs Sporting Clube de Portugal: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Rio Avevs
Sporting Clube de PortugalThe model puts Sporting Clube de Portugal at 76%. The model leans toward Sporting Clube de Portugal. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Sporting Clube de Portugal (1-3-11).
- +Recent form favours Sporting Clube de Portugal.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Rio Ave have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sporting Clube de Portugal have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rio Ave have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sporting Clube de Portugal is priced at 1.27.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 21 | 18 | 10 | 4 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Rio Ave at 10%. The model puts the draw at 14%. The model puts Sporting Clube de Portugal at 76%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Sporting Clube de Portugal. Rio Ave is priced at 9.4. The draw is priced at 6.25. Sporting Clube de Portugal is priced at 1.27.
Rio Ave have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Sporting Clube de Portugal have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Rio Ave have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Sporting Clube de Portugal have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
Rio Ave average 0 goals per game this season. Rio Ave average 48% possession. Sporting Clube de Portugal average 2 goals per game this season. Sporting Clube de Portugal average 56% possession.
The model gives 26% for both teams to score. The model gives 34% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Rio Ave or Sporting Clube de Portugal?
Our model rates Sporting Clube de Portugal as the most likely outcome at 76% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Rio Ave vs Sporting Clube de Portugal?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 Rio Ave wins, 3 draws, 11 Sporting Clube de Portugal wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 2 |  Marítimo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 7 |
| 3 |  Arouca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:0 | 6 |
| 4 |  Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 6 |
| 5 |  Benfica | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9:2 | 4 |
| 6 |  Nacional da Madeira | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 7 |  Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 4 |
| 8 |  Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 9 | Rio Ave | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 10 |  Estrela da Amadora | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:4 | 2 |
| 11 |  Academico de Viseu | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | 2 |
| 12 |  Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 13 |  Famalicao | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 14 |  Estoril | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:5 | 1 |
| 15 |  Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 16 |  Alverca | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 17 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:4 | 0 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.