New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
New York Red Bullsvs
Philadelphia UnionThe model puts Philadelphia Union at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours New York Red Bulls (10-4-1).
- +Philadelphia Union creates more chances (13 vs 15 shots per game).
- −New York Red Bulls controls more of the ball (52% vs 45%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- New York Red Bulls have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Philadelphia Union is priced at 2.13.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts New York Red Bulls at 34%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Philadelphia Union at 43%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Philadelphia Union. New York Red Bulls is priced at 3.096. The draw is priced at 3.84. Philadelphia Union is priced at 2.13.
New York Red Bulls have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. Philadelphia Union have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
New York Red Bulls have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Philadelphia Union have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
New York Red Bulls average 2 goals per game this season. New York Red Bulls average 52% possession. Philadelphia Union average 2 goals per game this season. Philadelphia Union average 45% possession.
The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 70% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, New York Red Bulls or Philadelphia Union?
Our model rates Philadelphia Union as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 10 New York Red Bulls wins, 4 draws, 1 Philadelphia Union wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Houston Dynamo | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 30:26 | 38 |
| 2 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 40:18 | 37 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 35:21 | 34 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 20 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 38:28 | 33 |
| 5 |  Dallas | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 38:29 | 33 |
| 6 |  St. Louis City | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 30:27 | 33 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 20 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 30:25 | 28 |
| 8 |  Real Salt Lake | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 34:32 | 28 |
| 9 |  Portland Timbers | 20 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 37:36 | 27 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 27:32 | 26 |
| 11 |  Seattle Sounders | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 22:27 | 25 |
| 12 |  Minnesota United | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 22:28 | 25 |
| 13 |  San Diego | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 34:32 | 24 |
| 14 |  Austin | 21 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 26:40 | 21 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 19:49 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.