TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
TSG 1899 Hoffenheimvs
Borussia DortmundThe model puts Borussia Dortmund at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours TSG 1899 Hoffenheim.
- +The head-to-head record favours Borussia Dortmund (4-2-9).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Borussia Dortmund have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Borussia Dortmund is priced at 2.43.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 38%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Borussia Dortmund at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim is priced at 2.61. The draw is priced at 3.86. Borussia Dortmund is priced at 2.43.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Borussia Dortmund have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Borussia Dortmund have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim or Borussia Dortmund?
Our model rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim wins, 2 draws, 9 Borussia Dortmund wins.
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Union Berlin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Bayern Munich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Schalke 04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Hamburger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 | Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  1. Koln | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Freiburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Augsburg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Paderborn 07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Elversberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.