Real Sociedad vs Espanyol: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Real Sociedadvs
EspanyolThe model puts Real Sociedad at 51%. The model leans toward Real Sociedad. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Real Sociedad.
- −The head-to-head record favours Espanyol (3-3-9).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Real Sociedad have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Espanyol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Real Sociedad is priced at 1.885.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Real Sociedad at 51%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Espanyol at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Real Sociedad. Real Sociedad is priced at 1.885. The draw is priced at 3.66. Espanyol is priced at 4.
Real Sociedad have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Espanyol have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Real Sociedad have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Espanyol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Real Sociedad or Espanyol?
Our model rates Real Sociedad as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Espanyol?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Real Sociedad wins, 3 draws, 9 Espanyol wins.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sevilla | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Alaves | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:1 | 4 |
| 3 | Espanyol | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 6 |  Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 8 |  Racing de Santander | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 9 |  Elche | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 10 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 11 |  Celta | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 12 |  Valencia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 13 |  Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 14 |  Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 17 |  Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 18 |  Malaga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 19 |  Getafe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
| 20 |  Levante UD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.