Guiseley vs Stockton Town: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Guiseleyvs
Stockton TownThe model puts Guiseley at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Guiseley.
- −The head-to-head record favours Stockton Town (1-2-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Guiseley have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Stockton Town have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Guiseley have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Guiseley is priced at 2.13.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Guiseley at 44%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Stockton Town at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Guiseley. Guiseley is priced at 2.13. The draw is priced at 3.25. Stockton Town is priced at 3.085.
Guiseley have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Stockton Town have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Guiseley have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Guiseley are on 2 wins in a row. Stockton Town have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Guiseley or Stockton Town?
Our model rates Guiseley as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Guiseley vs Stockton Town?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Guiseley wins, 2 draws, 3 Stockton Town wins.
Odds movement
League table
England. Northern Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cleethorpes Town | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13:2 | 13 |
| 2 |  Warrington Town | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13:3 | 13 |
| 3 |  Avro | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13:6 | 12 |
| 4 |  Redcar Athletic | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:2 | 11 |
| 5 |  Ashton United | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:3 | 10 |
| 6 | Guiseley | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10:7 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bury | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7:5 | 10 |
| 8 |  Gainsborough Trinity | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10:4 | 9 |
| 9 |  Emley | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6:5 | 8 |
| 10 |  Hyde United | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3:5 | 7 |
| 11 |  Alfreton Town | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6:6 | 6 |
| 12 |  Rylands | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4:7 | 6 |
| 13 |  Ilkeston | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4:8 | 6 |
| 14 |  Whitby Town | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4:10 | 6 |
| 15 |  Leek Town | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8:7 | 5 |
| 16 |  Curzon Ashton | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7:9 | 4 |
| 17 | Stockton Town | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 18 |  Lancaster City | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6:11 | 4 |
| 19 |  Workington | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5:10 | 4 |
| 20 |  Bamber Bridge | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5:14 | 4 |
| 21 |  Quorn | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4:11 | 2 |
| 22 |  United of Manchester | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2:10 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.