Qarabag vs Twente: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Qarabagvs
TwenteThe model puts Twente at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Qarabag.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Qarabag have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Twente have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Qarabag have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Twente is priced at 2.11.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Qarabag at 33%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Twente at 42%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Twente. Qarabag is priced at 3.125. The draw is priced at 3.84. Twente is priced at 2.11.
Qarabag have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Twente have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Qarabag have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Twente have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Qarabag or Twente?
Our model rates Twente as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Qarabag vs Twente?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Qarabag wins, 3 draws, 2 Twente wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.