Freiburg vs Motherwell: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Freiburgvs
MotherwellThe model puts Freiburg at 80%. The model leans toward Freiburg. Confidence: high.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Freiburg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Motherwell have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Freiburg is priced at 1.19.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 5 | ||||
| 2 | 19 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 15 | 5 | ||||
| 4 | 9 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Freiburg at 80%. The model puts the draw at 13%. The model puts Motherwell at 7%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Freiburg. Freiburg is priced at 1.19. The draw is priced at 7.1. Motherwell is priced at 13.5.
Motherwell have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Freiburg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Motherwell have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 26% for both teams to score. The model gives 51% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Freiburg or Motherwell?
Our model rates Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 80% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Freiburg vs Motherwell?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Freiburg wins, 0 draws, 1 Motherwell wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.