Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Brighton & Hove Albionvs
Leeds UnitedThe model puts Brighton & Hove Albion at 53%. The model leans toward Brighton & Hove Albion. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Brighton & Hove Albion.
- −The head-to-head record favours Leeds United (2-3-10).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Brighton & Hove Albion have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Leeds United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Brighton & Hove Albion have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Brighton & Hove Albion is priced at 1.81.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Brighton & Hove Albion at 53%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Leeds United at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Brighton & Hove Albion. Brighton & Hove Albion is priced at 1.81. The draw is priced at 3.62. Leeds United is priced at 4.44.
Brighton & Hove Albion have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Leeds United have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Brighton & Hove Albion have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Brighton & Hove Albion are on 2 wins in a row. Leeds United have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Brighton & Hove Albion or Leeds United?
Our model rates Brighton & Hove Albion as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Brighton & Hove Albion wins, 3 draws, 10 Leeds United wins.
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 4 |  Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 5 |  Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 6 |  Chelsea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 7 |  Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 8 |  Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 9 | Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 10 |  Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 11 |  Newcastle United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 12 |  Fulham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 13 |  Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 14 |  Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Nottingham Forest | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 16 |  Manchester United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 17 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 18 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
| 19 |  Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
| 20 |  Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.