Alverca vs Santa Clara: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Alvercavs
Santa ClaraThe model puts Santa Clara at 45%. The model leans toward Santa Clara. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Santa Clara.
- +The head-to-head record favours Santa Clara (2-2-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Alverca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Santa Clara have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Alverca have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Santa Clara is priced at 2.3.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Alverca at 28%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Santa Clara at 45%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Alverca is priced at 3.28. The draw is priced at 3.18. Santa Clara is priced at 2.3.
Alverca have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Santa Clara have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Alverca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Santa Clara have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Santa Clara are on 2 wins in a row.
Alverca average 2 goals per game this season. Alverca average 46% possession. Santa Clara average 1 goals per game this season. Santa Clara average 40% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Alverca or Santa Clara?
Our model rates Santa Clara as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Alverca vs Santa Clara?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 8 meetings: 2 Alverca wins, 2 draws, 4 Santa Clara wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 3 |  Marítimo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 7 |
| 4 |  Arouca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:0 | 6 |
| 5 |  Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 6 |
| 6 |  Benfica | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9:2 | 4 |
| 7 |  Nacional da Madeira | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 8 |  Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 9 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 10 |  Rio Ave | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 11 |  Estrela da Amadora | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:4 | 2 |
| 12 |  Academico de Viseu | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | 2 |
| 13 |  Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 14 |  Famalicao | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 15 |  Estoril | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:5 | 1 |
| 16 |  Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 17 | Alverca | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.