Nacional da Madeira vs Estrela da Amadora: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Nacional da Madeiravs
Estrela da AmadoraThe model puts Nacional da Madeira at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Nacional da Madeira.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Nacional da Madeira have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Estrela da Amadora have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nacional da Madeira have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Nacional da Madeira is priced at 2.39.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Nacional da Madeira at 42%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Estrela da Amadora at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Nacional da Madeira is priced at 2.39. The draw is priced at 3.22. Estrela da Amadora is priced at 3.07.
Nacional da Madeira have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Estrela da Amadora have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Nacional da Madeira have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Estrela da Amadora have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Nacional da Madeira average 2 goals per game this season. Nacional da Madeira average 59% possession. Estrela da Amadora average 2 goals per game this season. Estrela da Amadora average 54% possession.
The model gives 69% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Nacional da Madeira or Estrela da Amadora?
Our model rates Nacional da Madeira as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Nacional da Madeira vs Estrela da Amadora?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Nacional da Madeira wins, 3 draws, 5 Estrela da Amadora wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | 9 |
| 2 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 3 |  Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 4 |  Marítimo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 7 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 6 |  Benfica | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9:2 | 4 |
| 7 | Nacional da Madeira | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 8 |  Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 9 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 10 |  Rio Ave | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 11 | Estrela da Amadora | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:4 | 2 |
| 12 |  Academico de Viseu | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | 2 |
| 13 |  Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 14 |  Famalicao | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 15 |  Estoril | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:5 | 1 |
| 16 |  Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 17 |  Alverca | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.