Casa Pia vs Moreirense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Casa Piavs
MoreirenseThe model puts Casa Pia at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Moreirense.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Casa Pia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Moreirense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Casa Pia have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Casa Pia is priced at 2.17.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 27 | 14 | 4 | |||
| 1 | 21 | 11 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Casa Pia at 42%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Moreirense at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Casa Pia. Casa Pia is priced at 2.17. The draw is priced at 3.26. Moreirense is priced at 3.5.
Casa Pia have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Moreirense have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Casa Pia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Moreirense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Casa Pia average 0 goals per game this season. Casa Pia average 36% possession. Moreirense average 0 goals per game this season. Moreirense average 49% possession.
The model gives 22% for both teams to score. The model gives 14% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Casa Pia or Moreirense?
Our model rates Casa Pia as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 8 meetings: 3 Casa Pia wins, 2 draws, 3 Moreirense wins.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | 9 |
| 2 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 3 |  Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 4 |  Marítimo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 7 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 6 |  Benfica | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9:2 | 4 |
| 7 |  Nacional da Madeira | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 8 |  Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 9 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 10 |  Rio Ave | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 11 |  Estrela da Amadora | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:4 | 2 |
| 12 |  Academico de Viseu | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | 2 |
| 13 |  Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 14 |  Famalicao | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 15 |  Estoril | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:5 | 1 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 17 |  Alverca | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0:8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.