Benfica vs Estoril: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Benficavs
EstorilThe model puts Benfica at 85%. The model leans toward Benfica. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Estoril (1-1-13).
- +Recent form favours Benfica.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Benfica have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Estoril have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Benfica have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Benfica is priced at 1.08.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 22 | 5 | ||||
| 2 | 22 | 5 | ||||
| 3 | 14 | 3 | ||||
| 4 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 3 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Benfica at 85%. The model puts the draw at 8%. The model puts Estoril at 7%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Benfica. Benfica is priced at 1.08. The draw is priced at 11. Estoril is priced at 24.
Benfica have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Estoril have won 13 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Benfica have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Estoril have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Benfica average 2 goals per game this season. Benfica average 62% possession. Estoril average 0 goals per game this season. Estoril average 41% possession.
The model gives 18% for both teams to score. The model gives 39% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Benfica or Estoril?
Our model rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 85% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Benfica vs Estoril?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 1 Benfica wins, 1 draws, 13 Estoril wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | 9 |
| 2 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 3 |  Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 4 |  Marítimo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 7 |
| 5 |  Gil Vicente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 6 |
| 6 |  Arouca | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 7 | Benfica | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9:2 | 4 |
| 8 |  Nacional da Madeira | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 9 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 10 |  Rio Ave | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 11 |  Estrela da Amadora | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:4 | 2 |
| 12 |  Academico de Viseu | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | 2 |
| 13 |  Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 14 |  Famalicao | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 15 | Estoril | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:5 | 1 |
| 16 |  Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 17 |  Alverca | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0:10 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.