Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bragavs
Vitoria GuimaraesThe model puts Braga at 58%. The model leans toward Braga. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Braga.
- +The head-to-head record favours Braga (7-4-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Braga have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vitoria Guimaraes have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Braga have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Braga is priced at 1.71.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Braga at 58%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Vitoria Guimaraes at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Braga. Braga is priced at 1.71. The draw is priced at 3.74. Vitoria Guimaraes is priced at 4.98.
Braga have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Vitoria Guimaraes have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Braga have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Vitoria Guimaraes have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Braga average 2 goals per game this season. Braga average 64% possession. Vitoria Guimaraes average 2 goals per game this season. Vitoria Guimaraes average 44% possession.
The model gives 60% for both teams to score. The model gives 72% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Braga or Vitoria Guimaraes?
Our model rates Braga as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Braga wins, 4 draws, 4 Vitoria Guimaraes wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | 9 |
| 2 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:5 | 7 |
| 3 |  Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 4 |  Marítimo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 7 |
| 5 |  Gil Vicente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 6 |
| 6 |  Arouca | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 7 |  Benfica | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9:2 | 4 |
| 8 |  Nacional da Madeira | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 10 |  Rio Ave | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 11 |  Estrela da Amadora | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4:4 | 2 |
| 12 |  Academico de Viseu | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | 2 |
| 13 | Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 1 |
| 14 |  Famalicao | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 15 |  Estoril | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:5 | 1 |
| 16 |  Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 17 |  Alverca | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:7 | 1 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0:10 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.