Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Pakhtakor Tashkent: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddahvs
Pakhtakor TashkentThe model puts Al-Ahli Jeddah at 73%. The model leans toward Al-Ahli Jeddah. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Pakhtakor Tashkent.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Al-Ahli Jeddah have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pakhtakor Tashkent have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Al-Ahli Jeddah is priced at 1.26.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 17 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Al-Ahli Jeddah at 73%. The model puts the draw at 15%. The model puts Pakhtakor Tashkent at 12%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Al-Ahli Jeddah. Al-Ahli Jeddah is priced at 1.26. The draw is priced at 6.3. Pakhtakor Tashkent is priced at 10.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Pakhtakor Tashkent have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Pakhtakor Tashkent have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Pakhtakor Tashkent are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 34% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Al-Ahli Jeddah or Pakhtakor Tashkent?
Our model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 73% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Pakhtakor Tashkent?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah wins, 0 draws, 2 Pakhtakor Tashkent wins.
Odds movement
League table
AFC Champions League Elite - League stage| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Newcastle Jets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 2 |  Beijing Guoan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a9be6497762417de84d7674 |
| 3 |  Kyoto Sanga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a884b457762417de8362217 |
| 4 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a9be6497762417de84d7673 |
| 5 |  Vissel Kobe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a9c0bf07762417de84d9ab6 |
| 6 |  Kashima Antlers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 7 |  Gamba Osaka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a884b457762417de8362218 |
| 8 |  Daejeon Hana Citizen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a884b457762417de8362217 |
| 9 |  Buriram United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a9bfe0c7762417de84d8c59 |
| 10 |  Pohang Steelers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a9be6497762417de84d7674 |
| 11 |  Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a9be6497762417de84d7673 |
| 12 |  Shanghai Port | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a9bfe0c7762417de84d8c52 |
| 13 |  Port | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a9c0bf07762417de84d9ab6 |
| 14 |  Darul Takzim | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | |
| 15 |  Ratchaburi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a9bfe0c7762417de84d8c52 |
| 16 |  Hanoi Police | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 6a884b457762417de8362218 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.