China vs New Zealand: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Chinavs
New ZealandThe model puts China at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours China.
- +The head-to-head record favours China (1-4-0).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- China have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New Zealand have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- China have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- China is priced at 2.62.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts China at 40%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts New Zealand at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. China is priced at 2.62. The draw is priced at 3.44. New Zealand is priced at 2.63.
China have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
China have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. New Zealand have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, China or New Zealand?
Our model rates China as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for China vs New Zealand?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 1 China wins, 4 draws, 0 New Zealand wins.
League table
Friendlies. National Teams| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Australia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 2 |  Cameroon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 | China | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Curacao | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:7 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.