Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Liverpoolvs
Atletico MadridThe model puts Liverpool at 56%. The model leans toward Liverpool. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Liverpool.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Liverpool are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Atletico Madrid are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Liverpool have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Liverpool have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Liverpool will be without Leoni, Bradley, Gomes, Chiesa, Ekitike, Endo.
- Atletico Madrid will be without Vargas, Ortiz, Sorloth.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Liverpool at 56%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Atletico Madrid at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Liverpool. Liverpool is priced at 1.712. The draw is priced at 3.96. Atletico Madrid is priced at 4.6.
Liverpool have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Atletico Madrid have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Liverpool have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Atletico Madrid have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Liverpool or Atletico Madrid?
Our model rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 11 meetings: 4 Liverpool wins, 2 draws, 5 Atletico Madrid wins.
Match statistics
Liverpool
- 1Becker A.
- 4van Dijk
- 5Jacquet
- 6Kerkez
- 7Wirtz
- 8Szoboszlai D.
- 9Isak Al.
- 10Mac Allister
- 18Gakpo
- 29Barcola B.
- 33Araujo R.
- Leoni (Missing Player)
- Bradley (Missing Player)
- Gomes (Missing Player)
- Chiesa (Missing Player)
- Ekitike (Missing Player)
- Endo (Missing Player)
Atletico Madrid
- 8Barrios P.
- 10Baena A.
- 11Lookman A.
- 13Oblak
- 14Llorente M.
- 17Hancko
- 18Pubill
- 19Alvarez J.
- 20Simeone
- 21Romero
- 23Hjulmand
- Vargas (Questionable)
- Ortiz (Missing Player)
- Sorloth (Questionable)
League table
UEFA Champions League (League stage)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 5 |  Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 6 |  AEK Athens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 |  Arsenal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Manchester United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Napoli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Slavia Prague | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  RC Lens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Slovan Bratislava | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Bayern Munich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  PSV Eindhoven | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  Feyenoord | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 19 |  Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 20 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 21 |  VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 22 |  Viking | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 23 |  Bodo-Glimt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 24 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 25 |  Galatasaray | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 26 |  Fenerbahce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 27 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 28 |  Como | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 29 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 30 |  Sabah Baku | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 31 |  Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 32 |  Lille OSC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 33 |  Club Brugge | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 34 |  Internazionale Milano | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 35 |  LASK Linz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 36 |  Porto | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.