Napoli vs Arsenal: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Napolivs
ArsenalThe model puts Arsenal at 59%. The model leans toward Arsenal. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Arsenal.
- +The head-to-head record favours Arsenal (1-1-3).
- +Napoli are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Arsenal are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Napoli have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Arsenal have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Napoli have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Napoli will be without Giovanni, Marianucci, Buongiorno, McTominay.
- Arsenal will be without Mosquera, Saliba W., Timber.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Napoli at 18%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Arsenal at 59%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Arsenal. Napoli is priced at 5.45. The draw is priced at 3.8. Arsenal is priced at 1.648.
Napoli have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Arsenal have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Napoli have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Arsenal have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Arsenal are on 5 wins in a row.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Napoli or Arsenal?
Our model rates Arsenal as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Napoli vs Arsenal?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 1 Napoli wins, 1 draws, 3 Arsenal wins.
Match statistics
Napoli
- 1Meret
- 11De Bruyne
- 13Rrahmani A.
- 16Marin
- 19Hojlund
- 21Politano
- 22Di Lorenzo
- 27Santos
- 37Spinazzola
- 68Lobotka
- 99Zambo Anguissa
- Giovanni (Missing Player)
- Marianucci (Missing Player)
- Buongiorno (Missing Player)
- McTominay (Missing Player)
Arsenal
- 1Raya D.
- 4White
- 6Magalhaes G.
- 7Saka B.
- 8Odegaard
- 15Konsa
- 17Tzolis
- 29Havertz
- 33Calafiori
- 41Rice
- 49Lewis-Skelly
- Mosquera (Questionable)
- Saliba W. (Missing Player)
- Timber (Questionable)
League table
UEFA Champions League (League stage)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 4 |  Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 5 |  Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 6 |  AEK Athens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Liverpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Manchester United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 11 | Napoli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Slavia Prague | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 13 |  RC Lens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Slovan Bratislava | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Bayern Munich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 17 |  PSV Eindhoven | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 18 |  Feyenoord | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 19 |  Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 20 |  Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 21 |  VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 22 |  Viking | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 23 |  Bodo-Glimt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 24 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 25 |  Galatasaray | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 26 |  Fenerbahce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 27 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 28 |  Como | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 29 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 30 |  Sabah Baku | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 31 |  Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 32 |  Lille OSC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 33 |  Club Brugge | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2:3 | 0 |
| 34 |  Internazionale Milano | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 35 |  LASK Linz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 36 |  Porto | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.