UEFA Europa League

Milan vs Benfica: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Milanvs

Benfica

Our predictionMilan to win

Model score: Low · 23/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Milan at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours Benfica.
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.

Win probabilities

1 · Milan43%

Draw26%

2 · Benfica30%

1 · MilanDraw2 · Benfica

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.24+6.7%

1X2Benfica3.32+1.9%

1X2Draw3.54-0.4%

1X2Milan2.12-1.5%

BTTSYes1.59-6.7%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

MilanDWWWL

BenficaWWWWW

Most likely scorelines

1-112.1%

1-011.2%

2-19.3%

2-08.6%

0-17.9%

0-07.3%

Team strength rating

Milan

Benfica

Expected goals

1.54Milan

1.08Benfica

Over 2.5 goals49%

Both teams to score52%

Match DNA

Milan Benfica

Key points

Milan have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Benfica have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
Milan have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Milan is priced at 2.12.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Milan win2.12Fair (-1.5%)

Double chanceMilan or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	8	4	2
1	11	12	7	2
2	9	9	5	2
3	4	5	3
4	2	2
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Milan at 43%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Benfica at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Milan. Milan is priced at 2.12. The draw is priced at 3.54. Benfica is priced at 3.32.

Milan have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Benfica have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.

Milan have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Benfica have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Benfica are on 5 wins in a row.

The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Milan or Benfica?

Our model rates Milan as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Milan vs Benfica?

A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 2 Milan wins, 3 draws, 1 Benfica wins.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

UEFA Europa League - League stage

#	Team	G
1	Sunderland	0:0
2	Crystal Palace	0:0
3	Bournemouth	0:0
4	Real Sociedad	0:0
5	Celta	0:0
6	FC Salzburg	0:0
7	Sturm Graz	0:0
8	Viktoria Plzen	0:0
9	AC Sparta Prague	0:0
10	Anderlecht	0:0
11	Royale Union Saint-Gilloise	0:0
12	Olympique de Marseille	0:0
13	Stade Rennais	0:0
14	Lyon	0:0
15	Bayer 04 Leverkusen	0:0
16	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim	0:0
17	Juventus	0:0
18	Milan	0:0
19	N.E.C.	0:0
20	AZ Alkmaar	0:0
21	S.C.U. Torreense	0:0
22	Levski Sofia	0:0
23	Dinamo Zagreb	0:0
24	AC Omonia	0:0
25	OFI Crete	0:0
26	Olympiacos Piraeus	0:0
27	Hapoel Be'er Sheva	0:0
28	Lillestrom	0:0
29	Jagiellonia Bialystok	0:0
30	Lech Poznan	0:0
31	Benfica	0:0
32	Celtic	0:0
33	Celje	0:0
34	Besiktas	0:0
35	Ferencvarosi	0:0
36	Ararat - Armenia	0:0