Ajax vs Willem II: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ajaxvs
Willem IIThe model puts Ajax at 79%. The model leans toward Ajax. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Willem II (2-1-12).
- −Recent form favours Willem II.
- −Ajax are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Willem II are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Ajax have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Willem II have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ajax have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Ajax will be without Bouwman A., Adingra, Blind.
- Willem II will be without Culum, Zarrouk, Didillon, Lachkar, Schuurman J., Hoogma, van Crooij V..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 13 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 13 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 8 | 4 | ||||
| 5 | 4 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Ajax at 79%. The model puts the draw at 9%. The model puts Willem II at 13%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Ajax. Ajax is priced at 1.115. The draw is priced at 9.7. Willem II is priced at 18.
Ajax have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Willem II have won 12 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Ajax have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Willem II have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Willem II are on 3 wins in a row.
Ajax average 2 goals per game this season. Ajax average 54% possession. Willem II average 1 goals per game this season. Willem II average 31% possession.
The model gives 34% for both teams to score. The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ajax or Willem II?
Our model rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 79% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ajax vs Willem II?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Ajax wins, 1 draws, 12 Willem II wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 22:7 | 16 |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17:6 | 16 |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 20:7 | 14 |
| 4 |  Twente | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12:5 | 13 |
| 5 | Ajax | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14:6 | 10 |
| 6 |  Excelsior | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 10 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12:14 | 10 |
| 8 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 15:13 | 9 |
| 9 |  Groningen | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12:13 | 8 |
| 10 |  N.E.C. | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11:12 | 7 |
| 11 |  Heerenveen | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7:9 | 6 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10:13 | 5 |
| 13 |  Telstar | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:11 | 5 |
| 14 |  Utrecht | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11:19 | 5 |
| 15 |  Cambuur | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9:18 | 4 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6:17 | 4 |
| 17 | Willem II | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5:14 | 2 |
| 18 |  ADO Den Haag | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6:16 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.