Bournemouth vs Brentford: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bournemouthvs
BrentfordThe model puts Bournemouth at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Brentford (2-3-10).
- −Bournemouth are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Brentford are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Bournemouth have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Brentford have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bournemouth have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Bournemouth will be without Araujo Jo., Junior Kroupi, Milosavljevic, Adli.
- Brentford will be without Dasilva P., Jensen M., Collins N.M., Milambo, Van den Berg S..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Bournemouth at 41%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Brentford at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Bournemouth is priced at 2.3. The draw is priced at 3.52. Brentford is priced at 2.984.
Bournemouth have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Brentford have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Bournemouth have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Brentford have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Bournemouth average 1 goals per game this season. Bournemouth average 59% possession. Brentford average 1 goals per game this season. Brentford average 53% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Bournemouth or Brentford?
Our model rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Brentford?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Bournemouth wins, 3 draws, 10 Brentford wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.