Chelsea vs Hull City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Chelseavs
Hull CityThe model puts Chelsea at 76%. The model leans toward Chelsea. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Hull City (0-2-13).
- +Recent form favours Chelsea.
- −Chelsea are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Hull City are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Chelsea have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Hull City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chelsea will be without Caicedo, Palestra, Henderson, Emegha.
- Hull City will be without Ansah, Hughes, Butland, Gyabi, Matazo, Morita.
- Chelsea is priced at 1.216.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | |||||
| 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Chelsea at 76%. The model puts the draw at 13%. The model puts Hull City at 12%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-0.
The market leans toward Chelsea. Chelsea is priced at 1.216. The draw is priced at 6.75. Hull City is priced at 12.
Hull City have won 13 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Chelsea have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Hull City have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Chelsea average 4 goals per game this season. Chelsea average 26% possession. Hull City average 1 goals per game this season. Hull City average 31% possession.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 83% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Chelsea or Hull City?
Our model rates Chelsea as the most likely outcome at 76% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Chelsea vs Hull City?
A scoreline around 3-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 0 Chelsea wins, 2 draws, 13 Hull City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.