Liverpool vs Fulham: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Liverpoolvs
FulhamThe model puts Liverpool at 65%. The model leans toward Liverpool. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Liverpool.
- +The head-to-head record favours Liverpool (8-5-2).
- −Liverpool are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Liverpool have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fulham have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Liverpool have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Liverpool will be without Leoni, Bradley, Gakpo, Gomes, Chiesa, Ekitike.
- Fulham will be without Cairney.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 18 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Liverpool at 65%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Fulham at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Liverpool. Liverpool is priced at 1.52. The draw is priced at 4.6. Fulham is priced at 5.6.
Liverpool have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Fulham have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Liverpool have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Liverpool are on 2 wins in a row. Fulham have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Liverpool average 2 goals per game this season. Liverpool average 69% possession. Fulham average 0 goals per game this season. Fulham average 59% possession.
The model gives 34% for both teams to score. The model gives 38% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Liverpool or Fulham?
Our model rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 65% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Fulham?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Liverpool wins, 5 draws, 2 Fulham wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.