Lorient vs Toulouse: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Lorientvs
ToulouseThe model puts Lorient at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Lorient (7-5-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Lorient have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Toulouse have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lorient have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Lorient is priced at 2.645.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Lorient at 38%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Toulouse at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Lorient is priced at 2.645. The draw is priced at 3.24. Toulouse is priced at 2.725.
Lorient have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Toulouse have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Lorient have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Toulouse have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Toulouse are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lorient or Toulouse?
Our model rates Lorient as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lorient vs Toulouse?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Lorient wins, 5 draws, 3 Toulouse wins.
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Monaco | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 9 |
| 2 |  Paris | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 4 |  Lille OSC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:2 | 7 |
| 5 |  Stade Rennais | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:5 | 7 |
| 6 |  Strasbourg | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8:7 | 6 |
| 7 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:5 | 5 |
| 8 | Lorient | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 9 |  Troyes AC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 10 |  Olympique de Marseille | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 3 |
| 11 |  RC Lens | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 3 |
| 12 |  Angers SCO | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 13 |  Le Mans | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5:6 | 2 |
| 14 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5:6 | 2 |
| 15 |  Nice | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:4 | 2 |
| 16 |  Le Havre | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 17 | Toulouse | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2:5 | 1 |
| 18 |  Auxerre | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4:11 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.