Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Real Sociedadvs
Atletico MadridThe model puts Atletico Madrid at 41%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Real Sociedad (8-5-2).
- +Recent form favours Real Sociedad.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Real Sociedad have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Atletico Madrid is priced at 2.344.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Real Sociedad at 34%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Atletico Madrid at 41%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Real Sociedad is priced at 2.92. The draw is priced at 3.52. Atletico Madrid is priced at 2.344.
Real Sociedad have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Atletico Madrid have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Real Sociedad have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Atletico Madrid have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Atletico Madrid average 2 goals per game this season. Atletico Madrid average 53% possession.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 40% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Real Sociedad or Atletico Madrid?
Our model rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Real Sociedad wins, 5 draws, 2 Atletico Madrid wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:2 | 12 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Alaves | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10:3 | 10 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10:3 | 9 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | 8 |
| 6 | Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 7 |  Sevilla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 8 |  Osasuna | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:6 | 7 |
| 9 | Real Sociedad | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 10 |  Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 6 |
| 11 |  Levante UD | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6:5 | 4 |
| 13 |  Racing de Santander | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:8 | 4 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:10 | 4 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Celta | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 17 |  Villarreal | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6:8 | 2 |
| 18 |  Malaga | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1:7 | 2 |
| 19 |  Elche | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5:12 | 1 |
| 20 |  Valencia | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1:9 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.