Racing de Santander vs Deportivo Alaves: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Racing de Santandervs
Deportivo AlavesThe model puts Racing de Santander at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Deportivo Alaves.
- −The head-to-head record favours Deportivo Alaves (3-5-7).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Racing de Santander have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Alaves have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Racing de Santander have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Racing de Santander is priced at 2.38.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Racing de Santander at 38%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Deportivo Alaves at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Racing de Santander is priced at 2.38. The draw is priced at 3.52. Deportivo Alaves is priced at 2.86.
Racing de Santander have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Deportivo Alaves have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Racing de Santander have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo Alaves have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo Alaves are on 2 wins in a row.
Racing de Santander average 2 goals per game this season. Racing de Santander average 41% possession. Deportivo Alaves average 3 goals per game this season. Deportivo Alaves average 52% possession.
The model gives 79% for both teams to score. The model gives 81% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Racing de Santander or Deportivo Alaves?
Our model rates Racing de Santander as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Racing de Santander vs Deportivo Alaves?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Racing de Santander wins, 5 draws, 7 Deportivo Alaves wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:2 | 12 |
| 2 | Deportivo Alaves | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10:3 | 10 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10:3 | 9 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | 8 |
| 6 |  Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 7 |  Sevilla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 8 |  Osasuna | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:6 | 7 |
| 9 |  Real Sociedad | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 10 |  Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 6 |
| 11 |  Levante UD | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6:5 | 4 |
| 13 | Racing de Santander | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:8 | 4 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:10 | 4 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Celta | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 17 |  Villarreal | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6:8 | 2 |
| 18 |  Malaga | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1:7 | 2 |
| 19 |  Elche | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5:12 | 1 |
| 20 |  Valencia | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1:9 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.