UEFA Conference League

Hajduk Split vs Ajax: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Hajduk Splitvs

Ajax

Our predictionAjax to win

Model score: Medium · 55/100

Score hint: 0-1

The model puts Ajax at 60%. The model leans toward Ajax. Confidence: medium.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours Hajduk Split.

Win probabilities

1 · Hajduk Split20%

Draw20%

2 · Ajax60%

1 · Hajduk SplitDraw2 · Ajax

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.13+10.3%

1X2Hajduk Split5.75+3.6%

1X2Draw4.48-0.9%

1X2Ajax1.52-2.7%

BTTSYes1.64-10.3%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

Hajduk Split

Ajax

Most likely scorelines

0-113.5%

0-211.6%

1-111.1%

1-29.6%

0-07.8%

0-36.7%

Recent form

Hajduk SplitDLWWW

AjaxLLWWL

Expected goals

0.82Hajduk Split

1.72Ajax

Over 2.5 goals47%

Both teams to score46%

Match DNA

Hajduk Split Ajax

Key points

Hajduk Split have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Ajax have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Hajduk Split have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Ajax is priced at 1.52.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Ajax win1.52Fair (-2.7%)

Double chanceAjax or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	13	12	7	3
1	6	11	10	6	2
2	3	5	4	2
3		1	1
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Hajduk Split at 20%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Ajax at 60%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.

The market leans toward Ajax. Hajduk Split is priced at 5.75. The draw is priced at 4.48. Ajax is priced at 1.52.

Hajduk Split have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.

Hajduk Split have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Ajax have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 46% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Hajduk Split or Ajax?

Our model rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Hajduk Split vs Ajax?

A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 2 meetings: 1 Hajduk Split wins, 1 draws, 0 Ajax wins.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

UEFA Conference League - League stage

#	Team	G	Form
1	Mjallby	0:0
2	Brighton & Hove Albion	0:0
3	AS Monaco	0:0
4	Jablonec	0:0
5	Gent	0:0	6a93f29d7762417de844fa23
6	Sint-Truidense	0:0
7	Freiburg	0:0
8	Atalanta	0:0
9	Ajax	0:0
10	Twente	0:0
11	Getafe	0:0
12	Kuopion Palloseura	0:0
13	CSKA Sofia	0:0
14	Hajduk Split	0:0
15	Pafos	0:0
16	AGF Aarhus	0:0	6a93f29d7762417de844fa23
17	Copenhagen	0:0
18	Midtjylland	0:0
19	Nordsjaelland	0:0
20	Panathinaikos	0:0
21	Brann	0:0
22	Braga	0:0
23	Heart of Midlothian	0:0
24	Lugano	0:0
25	Crvena Zvezda	0:0
26	Thun	0:0
27	Trabzonspor	0:0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0:0
29	Kairat	0:0
30	Egnatia	0:0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0:0
32	Zalgiris Kaunas	0:0
33	CS Universitatea Craiova	0:0
34	Iberia 1999	0:0
35	Lincoln Red Imps	0:0
36	Riga FC	0:0