UEFA Conference League

Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Luganovs

Crvena Zvezda

Our predictionCrvena Zvezda to win

Model score: Low · 7/100

Score hint: 1-2

The model puts Crvena Zvezda at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Win probabilities

1 · Lugano34%

Draw26%

2 · Crvena Zvezda40%

1 · LuganoDraw2 · Crvena Zvezda

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSYes1.55+11.4%

1X2Lugano2.84+0.6%

1X2Draw3.60-0.2%

1X2Crvena Zvezda2.36-0.4%

BTTSNo2.30-11.4%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Expected goals

1.84Lugano

1.87Crvena Zvezda

Over 2.5 goals72%

Both teams to score71%

Most likely scorelines

1-18.4%

1-27.9%

2-17.8%

2-27.2%

1-34.9%

3-14.7%

Team strength rating

Lugano

Crvena Zvezda

Recent form

LuganoWWD

Crvena ZvezdaWWWD

Match DNA

Lugano Crvena Zvezda

Key points

Lugano have 2 wins in their last 3 matches.
Crvena Zvezda have 3 wins in their last 4 matches.
Crvena Zvezda is priced at 2.36.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Crvena Zvezda win2.36Fair

Double chanceCrvena Zvezda or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	2	5	4	3	1
1	5	8	8	5	2
2	4	8	7	5	2
3	3	5	4	3	1
4	1	2	2	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Lugano at 34%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Crvena Zvezda at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.

The market frames this as a close contest. Lugano is priced at 2.84. The draw is priced at 3.6. Crvena Zvezda is priced at 2.36.

Lugano have 2 wins in their last 3 matches. Lugano are on 2 wins in a row. Crvena Zvezda have 3 wins in their last 4 matches. Crvena Zvezda are on 3 wins in a row.

The model gives 71% for both teams to score. The model gives 72% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Lugano or Crvena Zvezda?

Our model rates Crvena Zvezda as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda?

A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

UEFA Conference League - League stage

#	Team	G	Form
1	Mjallby	0:0
2	Brighton & Hove Albion	0:0
3	AS Monaco	0:0
4	Jablonec	0:0
5	Gent	0:0	6a93f29d7762417de844fa23
6	Sint-Truidense	0:0
7	Freiburg	0:0
8	Atalanta	0:0
9	Ajax	0:0
10	Twente	0:0
11	Getafe	0:0
12	Kuopion Palloseura	0:0
13	CSKA Sofia	0:0
14	Hajduk Split	0:0
15	Pafos	0:0
16	AGF Aarhus	0:0	6a93f29d7762417de844fa23
17	Copenhagen	0:0
18	Midtjylland	0:0
19	Nordsjaelland	0:0
20	Panathinaikos	0:0
21	Brann	0:0
22	Braga	0:0
23	Heart of Midlothian	0:0
24	Lugano	0:0
25	Crvena Zvezda	0:0
26	Thun	0:0
27	Trabzonspor	0:0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0:0
29	Kairat	0:0
30	Egnatia	0:0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0:0
32	Zalgiris Kaunas	0:0
33	CS Universitatea Craiova	0:0
34	Iberia 1999	0:0
35	Lincoln Red Imps	0:0
36	Riga FC	0:0