UEFA Conference League

Twente vs Thun: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Twentevs

Thun

Our predictionTwente to win

Model score: High · 92/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts Twente at 80%. The model leans toward Twente. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Twente.

Win probabilities

1 · Twente80%

Draw12%

2 · Thun8%

1 · TwenteDraw2 · Thun

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.98+23.7%

1X2Twente1.19+1.0%

1X2Thun12.00-0.4%

1X2Draw7.50-0.6%

BTTSYes1.74-23.7%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

Twente

Thun

Expected goals

2.69Twente

0.38Thun

Over 2.5 goals59%

Both teams to score30%

Recent form

TwenteWWW

ThunWLL

Most likely scorelines

2-016.8%

3-015.1%

1-012.5%

4-010.1%

2-16.4%

3-15.7%

Match DNA

Twente Thun

Key points

Twente have 3 wins in their last 3 matches.
Thun have 1 wins in their last 3 matches.
Twente is priced at 1.19.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Twente win1.19Fair (+1.0%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	5	2
1	12	5
2	17	6	1
3	15	6	1
4	10	4
5	5	2

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Twente at 80%. The model puts the draw at 12%. The model puts Thun at 8%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

The market leans toward Twente. Twente is priced at 1.19. The draw is priced at 7.5. Thun is priced at 12.

Twente have 3 wins in their last 3 matches. Twente are on 3 wins in a row. Thun have 1 wins in their last 3 matches.

The model gives 30% for both teams to score. The model gives 59% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Twente or Thun?

Our model rates Twente as the most likely outcome at 80% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Twente vs Thun?

A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

UEFA Conference League - League stage

#	Team	G	Form
1	Mjallby	0:0
2	Brighton & Hove Albion	0:0
3	AS Monaco	0:0
4	Jablonec	0:0
5	Gent	0:0	6a93f29d7762417de844fa23
6	Sint-Truidense	0:0
7	Freiburg	0:0
8	Atalanta	0:0
9	Ajax	0:0
10	Twente	0:0
11	Getafe	0:0
12	Kuopion Palloseura	0:0
13	CSKA Sofia	0:0
14	Hajduk Split	0:0
15	Pafos	0:0
16	AGF Aarhus	0:0	6a93f29d7762417de844fa23
17	Copenhagen	0:0
18	Midtjylland	0:0
19	Nordsjaelland	0:0
20	Panathinaikos	0:0
21	Brann	0:0
22	Braga	0:0
23	Heart of Midlothian	0:0
24	Lugano	0:0
25	Crvena Zvezda	0:0
26	Thun	0:0
27	Trabzonspor	0:0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0:0
29	Kairat	0:0
30	Egnatia	0:0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0:0
32	Zalgiris Kaunas	0:0
33	CS Universitatea Craiova	0:0
34	Iberia 1999	0:0
35	Lincoln Red Imps	0:0
36	Riga FC	0:0