Moreirense vs Benfica: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Moreirensevs
BenficaThe model puts Benfica at 78%. The model leans toward Benfica. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Moreirense.
- −The head-to-head record favours Moreirense (8-6-1).
- +Moreirense are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Moreirense have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Benfica have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Moreirense have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Moreirense will be without Janderson, Maranhao Atletico Clube, Liberato.
- Benfica will be without Ba.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | |
| 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 6 | |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Moreirense at 12%. The model puts the draw at 10%. The model puts Benfica at 78%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-4.
The market leans toward Benfica. Moreirense is priced at 19. The draw is priced at 8.9. Benfica is priced at 1.125.
Moreirense have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Benfica have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 6 of their head-to-head meetings.
Moreirense have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Benfica have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Moreirense average 2 goals per game this season. Moreirense average 36% possession. Benfica average 5 goals per game this season. Benfica average 62% possession.
The model gives 64% for both teams to score. The model gives 92% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Moreirense or Benfica?
Our model rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 78% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Benfica?
A scoreline around 1-4 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Moreirense wins, 6 draws, 1 Benfica wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Moreirense
- 7Mendonca
- 8Stjepanovic
- 9Parsemain A.
- 10Bondoso K.
- 11Landerson
- 13Ferreira A.F.
- 23John
- 26de Brito Gonzaga
- 27Kiko
- 66Batista
- 76Pinto
- Janderson (2)
- Maranhao Atletico Clube (2)
- Liberato (2)
Benfica
- 2Lenglet
- 10Sudakov
- 14Pavlidis
- 18Barreiro Martins
- 24Самюель
- 25Prestianni
- 26Dal
- 27Rafa
- 36Palhinha
- 44Araújo
- 58Banjaqui D.
- Ba (Questionable)
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11:1 | 15 |
| 2 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14:5 | 13 |
| 3 |  Santa Clara | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9:3 | 11 |
| 4 | Benfica | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14:3 | 10 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7:3 | 10 |
| 6 |  Gil Vicente | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3:1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Braga | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Marítimo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 9 |  Estrela da Amadora | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9:8 | 6 |
| 10 |  Academico de Viseu | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 11 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3:5 | 4 |
| 12 |  Nacional da Madeira | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6:8 | 4 |
| 13 | Moreirense | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4:8 | 4 |
| 14 |  Famalicao | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 15 |  Rio Ave | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2:11 | 3 |
| 16 |  Estoril | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2:7 | 2 |
| 17 |  Alverca | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5:10 | 2 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0:11 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.