Osasuna vs Espanyol: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Osasunavs
EspanyolThe model puts Osasuna at 48%. The model leans toward Osasuna. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Osasuna.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Osasuna have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Espanyol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Osasuna have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Osasuna is priced at 2.06.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Osasuna at 48%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Espanyol at 24%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Osasuna. Osasuna is priced at 2.06. The draw is priced at 3.32. Espanyol is priced at 3.74.
Osasuna have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Espanyol have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Osasuna have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Osasuna are on 2 wins in a row. Espanyol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Espanyol average 3 goals per game this season. Espanyol average 54% possession.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 54% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Osasuna or Espanyol?
Our model rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Espanyol?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Osasuna wins, 5 draws, 4 Espanyol wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:2 | 12 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Alaves | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10:3 | 10 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10:3 | 9 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | 8 |
| 6 |  Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 7 |  Sevilla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 8 | Osasuna | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:6 | 7 |
| 9 |  Real Sociedad | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 10 |  Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 6 |
| 11 |  Levante UD | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6:5 | 4 |
| 13 |  Racing de Santander | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:8 | 4 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:10 | 4 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Celta | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 17 |  Villarreal | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6:8 | 2 |
| 18 |  Malaga | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1:7 | 2 |
| 19 |  Elche | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5:12 | 1 |
| 20 |  Valencia | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1:9 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.