Africa Cup of Nations

Malawi vs South Sudan: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

← Match page: score & lineups

Malawivs

South Sudan

Our predictionMalawi to win

Model score: High · 81/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Malawi at 64%. The model leans toward Malawi. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Malawi.
−The head-to-head record favours South Sudan (1-0-2).

Win probabilities

1 · Malawi64%

Draw23%

2 · South Sudan13%

1 · MalawiDraw2 · South Sudan

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSYes2.55+4.2%

1X2Malawi1.47+0.8%

1X2South Sudan7.50+0.5%

1X2Draw3.76-1.2%

BTTSNo1.45-4.2%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

Malawi

South Sudan

Recent form

MalawiWWLDW

South SudanDLLLW

Most likely scorelines

1-014.6%

2-014.3%

3-09.4%

1-19.3%

2-19.1%

0-07.4%

Expected goals

1.96Malawi

0.64South Sudan

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score41%

Match DNA

Malawi South Sudan

Key points

Malawi have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
South Sudan have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Malawi have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Malawi is priced at 1.47.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Malawi win1.47Fair (+0.8%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	5	2
1	15	9	3
2	14	9	3
3	9	6	2
4	5	3
5	2	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Malawi at 64%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts South Sudan at 13%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Malawi. Malawi is priced at 1.47. The draw is priced at 3.76. South Sudan is priced at 7.5.

Malawi have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. South Sudan have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.

Malawi have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Malawi are on 2 wins in a row. South Sudan have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 41% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →