Sudan vs Ethiopia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sudanvs
EthiopiaThe model puts Sudan at 51%. The model leans toward Sudan. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Ethiopia.
- +The head-to-head record favours Sudan (8-4-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sudan have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ethiopia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sudan have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sudan is priced at 1.8.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sudan at 51%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Ethiopia at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Sudan. Sudan is priced at 1.8. The draw is priced at 3.26. Ethiopia is priced at 4.61.
Sudan have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Ethiopia have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sudan have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Ethiopia have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sudan or Ethiopia?
Our model rates Sudan as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sudan vs Ethiopia?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Sudan wins, 4 draws, 3 Ethiopia wins.
League table
Africa Cup of Nations (Qualification)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morocco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Lesotho | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Gabon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Niger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.