Africa Cup of Nations

Nigeria vs Madagascar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Nigeriavs

Madagascar

Our predictionNigeria to win

Model score: High · 78/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts Nigeria at 73%. The model leans toward Nigeria. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−The head-to-head record favours Madagascar (1-0-2).

Win probabilities

1 · Nigeria73%

Draw17%

2 · Madagascar10%

1 · NigeriaDraw2 · Madagascar

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.59+8.3%

1X2Madagascar10.50+1.0%

1X2Draw5.40-0.2%

1X2Nigeria1.25-0.8%

BTTSYes2.22-8.3%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Team strength rating

Nigeria

Madagascar

Recent form

NigeriaLDWLL

MadagascarLDWLD

Most likely scorelines

2-016.7%

1-015.8%

3-011.9%

2-18.0%

1-17.5%

0-07.4%

Expected goals

2.12Nigeria

0.48Madagascar

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score33%

Match DNA

Nigeria Madagascar

Key points

Nigeria have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Madagascar have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Nigeria have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Nigeria is priced at 1.25.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Nigeria win1.25Fair (-0.8%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	4
1	16	8	2
2	17	8	2
3	12	6	1
4	6	3
5	3	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Nigeria at 73%. The model puts the draw at 17%. The model puts Madagascar at 10%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

The market leans toward Nigeria. Nigeria is priced at 1.25. The draw is priced at 5.4. Madagascar is priced at 10.5.

Nigeria have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Madagascar have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.

Nigeria have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Madagascar have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 33% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →