Tunisia vs Uganda: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Tunisiavs
UgandaThe model puts Tunisia at 62%. The model leans toward Tunisia. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Uganda.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Tunisia have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Uganda have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tunisia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Tunisia is priced at 1.45.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Tunisia at 62%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Uganda at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Tunisia. Tunisia is priced at 1.45. The draw is priced at 4.05. Uganda is priced at 7.
Tunisia have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Tunisia have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Uganda have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Tunisia or Uganda?
Our model rates Tunisia as the most likely outcome at 62% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Tunisia vs Uganda?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 2 Tunisia wins, 0 draws, 0 Uganda wins.
Odds movement
League table
Africa Cup of Nations (Qualification)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morocco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Lesotho | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 3 |  Gabon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
| 4 |  Niger | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.