Ghana vs Republic of the Gambia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ghanavs
Republic of the GambiaThe model puts Ghana at 55%. The model leans toward Ghana. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Republic of the Gambia.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Ghana have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Republic of the Gambia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Ghana have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Ghana is priced at 1.63.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Ghana at 55%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Republic of the Gambia at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Ghana. Ghana is priced at 1.63. The draw is priced at 3.68. Republic of the Gambia is priced at 5.17.
Ghana have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Ghana have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Republic of the Gambia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 48% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ghana or Republic of the Gambia?
Our model rates Ghana as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ghana vs Republic of the Gambia?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 2 Ghana wins, 0 draws, 0 Republic of the Gambia wins.
League table
Africa Cup of Nations (Qualification)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morocco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Niger | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Lesotho | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 4 |  Gabon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.