Guinea vs Kenya: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Guineavs
KenyaThe model puts Guinea at 54%. The model leans toward Guinea. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Kenya.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Guinea have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Kenya have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Guinea have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Guinea is priced at 1.63.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Guinea at 54%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Kenya at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Guinea. Guinea is priced at 1.63. The draw is priced at 3.38. Kenya is priced at 5.87.
Guinea have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Kenya have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Guinea have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Kenya have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Guinea or Kenya?
Our model rates Guinea as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Guinea vs Kenya?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 8 meetings: 4 Guinea wins, 0 draws, 4 Kenya wins.
League table
Africa Cup of Nations (Qualification)| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Morocco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 6 |
| 2 |  Niger | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Gabon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 4 |  Lesotho | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.