Newcastle United vs Hull City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Newcastle Unitedvs
Hull CityThe model puts Newcastle United at 62%. The model leans toward Newcastle United. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Hull City.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Newcastle United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Hull City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Newcastle United have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Newcastle United is priced at 1.47.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Newcastle United at 62%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Hull City at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Newcastle United. Newcastle United is priced at 1.47. The draw is priced at 4.64. Hull City is priced at 6.3.
Newcastle United have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Hull City have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Newcastle United have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Hull City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Newcastle United or Hull City?
Our model rates Newcastle United as the most likely outcome at 62% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Newcastle United vs Hull City?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 13 meetings: 5 Newcastle United wins, 5 draws, 3 Hull City wins.
League table
England. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:2 | 9 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 9 |
| 3 | Hull City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3:0 | 7 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8:7 | 6 |
| 5 |  Brentford | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:2 | 5 |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:4 | 5 |
| 7 | Newcastle United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:4 | 5 |
| 8 |  Everton | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:3 | 5 |
| 9 |  Leeds United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:2 | 5 |
| 10 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 11 |  Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 4 |
| 12 |  Sunderland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 13 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 14 |  Ipswich Town | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 15 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | 2 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:3 | 2 |
| 17 |  Aston Villa | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0:5 | 1 |
| 18 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0:5 | 1 |
| 19 |  Fulham | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4:7 | 0 |
| 20 |  Coventry City | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0:5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.