Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Atletico Madridvs
OsasunaThe model puts Atletico Madrid at 63%. The model leans toward Atletico Madrid. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Osasuna (2-0-13).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Atletico Madrid have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Osasuna have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Atletico Madrid is priced at 1.46.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 17 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Atletico Madrid at 63%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Osasuna at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Atletico Madrid. Atletico Madrid is priced at 1.46. The draw is priced at 4.4. Osasuna is priced at 7.
Atletico Madrid have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Osasuna have won 13 of the head-to-head meetings.
Atletico Madrid have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Osasuna have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Atletico Madrid average 2 goals per game this season. Atletico Madrid average 53% possession.
The model gives 37% for both teams to score. The model gives 42% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Atletico Madrid or Osasuna?
Our model rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 63% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Atletico Madrid wins, 0 draws, 13 Osasuna wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Spain. La Liga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:2 | 12 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Alaves | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10:3 | 10 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10:3 | 9 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5:5 | 9 |
| 5 |  Deportivo de A Coruna | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | 8 |
| 6 | Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 7 |  Sevilla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 8 | Osasuna | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5:6 | 7 |
| 9 |  Real Sociedad | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 10 |  Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:5 | 6 |
| 11 |  Levante UD | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 5 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6:5 | 4 |
| 13 |  Racing de Santander | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:8 | 4 |
| 14 |  Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7:10 | 4 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Celta | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 17 |  Villarreal | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6:8 | 2 |
| 18 |  Malaga | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1:7 | 2 |
| 19 |  Elche | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5:12 | 1 |
| 20 |  Valencia | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1:9 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.