Moreirense vs Marítimo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Moreirensevs
MarítimoThe model puts Moreirense at 35%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Marítimo are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Moreirense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Marítimo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Moreirense have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Moreirense will be without Liberato.
- Marítimo will be without Bouzaidi, Ogbeta, Santiago, Tavares T..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Moreirense at 35%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Marítimo at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Moreirense is priced at 2.77. The draw is priced at 3.152. Marítimo is priced at 2.67.
Moreirense have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Marítimo have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Moreirense have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Marítimo have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Moreirense average 1 goals per game this season. Moreirense average 31% possession. Marítimo average 2 goals per game this season. Marítimo average 41% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Moreirense or Marítimo?
Our model rates Moreirense as the most likely outcome at 35% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Marítimo?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Moreirense wins, 4 draws, 6 Marítimo wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Moreirense
- 7Mendonca
- 9Parsemain A.
- 11Landerson
- 13Ferreira A.F.
- 20Veloso
- 23John
- 26de Brito Gonzaga
- 27Kiko
- 65Liberato Guilherme
- 66Batista
- 76Pinto
- Liberato (2)
Marítimo
- 2Juliao I.
- 4Fernandes
- 6Andrade
- 10Tejon
- 13Vacas A.
- 14Raphael Guzzo
- 17Butzke
- 18Danilovic
- 23Henrique Pa.
- 35Limbombe B.
- 44Correia R.
- Bouzaidi (Questionable)
- Ogbeta (Missing Player)
- Santiago (Questionable)
- Tavares T. (Questionable)
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15:2 | 18 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21:4 | 16 |
| 3 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15:6 | 14 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11:4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 6 |  Estrela da Amadora | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11:9 | 9 |
| 7 |  Academico de Viseu | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:9 | 8 |
| 8 |  Braga | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 10 | Marítimo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8:11 | 5 |
| 12 |  Famalicao | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5:7 | 4 |
| 13 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 14 |  Nacional da Madeira | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7:11 | 4 |
| 15 | Moreirense | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:12 | 4 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2:11 | 3 |
| 17 |  Estoril | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2:7 | 2 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1:15 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.