Rio Ave vs Estrela da Amadora: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Rio Avevs
Estrela da AmadoraThe model puts Estrela da Amadora at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Estrela da Amadora.
- −The head-to-head record favours Rio Ave (10-3-2).
- +Rio Ave are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Rio Ave have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Estrela da Amadora have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rio Ave have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Rio Ave will be without Abbey, Mateus, Ryan Guilherme, Zamora, Miszta.
- Estrela da Amadora is priced at 2.69.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Rio Ave at 36%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Estrela da Amadora at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Rio Ave is priced at 2.7. The draw is priced at 3.2. Estrela da Amadora is priced at 2.69.
Rio Ave have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. Estrela da Amadora have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Rio Ave have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Estrela da Amadora have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Rio Ave average 0 goals per game this season. Rio Ave average 43% possession. Estrela da Amadora average 3 goals per game this season. Estrela da Amadora average 51% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Rio Ave or Estrela da Amadora?
Our model rates Estrela da Amadora as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Rio Ave vs Estrela da Amadora?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 10 Rio Ave wins, 3 draws, 2 Estrela da Amadora wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Rio Ave
- 5Ntoi
- 7De Oliveira
- 9Monteiro
- 11Блеза
- 17Vrousai
- 23Petrasso
- 24Amaral P.
- 39Gustavo Teixeira Lopes da Conceicao
- 44Nikitscher
- 77Spikic D.
- 99van der Gouw
- Abbey (Questionable)
- Mateus (Questionable)
- Ryan Guilherme (Missing Player)
- Zamora (Missing Player)
- Miszta (Missing Player)
Estrela da Amadora
- 5Lekovic
- 10Stoica Ia.
- 14Zvonarek
- 21Scholze
- 24Linck Le.
- 30Patrick L.
- 37Antonetti
- 39Doue
- 55Rafa
- 78Serra
- 99Ayomide Marcus A.
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15:2 | 18 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21:4 | 16 |
| 3 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15:6 | 14 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11:4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 6 | Estrela da Amadora | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11:9 | 9 |
| 7 |  Academico de Viseu | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:9 | 8 |
| 8 |  Braga | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 10 |  Marítimo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8:11 | 5 |
| 12 |  Famalicao | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5:7 | 4 |
| 13 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 14 |  Nacional da Madeira | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7:11 | 4 |
| 15 |  Moreirense | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:12 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2:11 | 3 |
| 17 |  Estoril | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2:7 | 2 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1:15 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.