Braga vs Estoril: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Bragavs
EstorilThe model puts Braga at 70%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Braga (10-4-1).
- +Recent form favours Braga.
- −Braga are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Estoril are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Braga have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Estoril have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Braga have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Braga take 9 shots per game.
- Estoril take 7 shots per game.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 20 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 17 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 4 | ||||
| 4 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
Braga have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Estoril have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Braga have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. Estoril have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Braga take 9 shots per game. Braga average 54% possession. Estoril take 7 shots per game. Estoril average 37% possession.
Braga will be without Gorby, Niakate S., Horta R., Huseinbasic. Estoril will be without Andreou, Sintes.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Braga or Estoril?
Our model rates Braga as the most likely outcome at 70% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Braga vs Estoril?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 10 Braga wins, 4 draws, 1 Estoril wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Braga
- 2Perea V.G.
- 6Carvalho Vieira V.
- 8Moutinho J
- 9Navarro
- 10Delgado
- 14Lagerbielke
- 20Dorgeles
- 22Sergio Barcia Larenxeira
- 31Bernardo
- 34Tiknaz
- 77Martinez
- Gorby (Missing Player)
- Niakate S. (Missing Player)
- Horta R. (Missing Player)
- Huseinbasic (Missing Player)
Estoril
- 1Joel Robles
- 2Sanchez
- 3Medrano
- 4Ferreira Fran.
- 5Tsoungui A.
- 7Lacximicant
- 10Холсгроув
- 11Omerovic
- 12Carvalho J.
- 14Begraoui
- 15Sierra
- Andreou (Questionable)
- Sintes (Missing Player)
League table
Campeonato de Portugal| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15:2 | 18 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21:4 | 16 |
| 3 |  Sporting Clube de Portugal | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15:6 | 14 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11:4 | 14 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:5 | 10 |
| 6 |  Estrela da Amadora | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11:9 | 9 |
| 7 |  Academico de Viseu | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:9 | 8 |
| 8 | Braga | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 10 |  Marítimo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8:11 | 5 |
| 12 |  Famalicao | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5:7 | 4 |
| 13 |  Vitoria Guimaraes | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 14 |  Nacional da Madeira | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7:11 | 4 |
| 15 |  Moreirense | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:12 | 4 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2:11 | 3 |
| 17 | Estoril | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2:7 | 2 |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1:15 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.