Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A

Corinthians Paulista vs Fluminense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Corinthians Paulistavs

Fluminense

Our predictionCorinthians Paulista to win

Model score: Low · 27/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Corinthians Paulista at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours Fluminense.
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.

Win probabilities

1 · Corinthians Paulista43%

Draw30%

2 · Fluminense27%

1 · Corinthians PaulistaDraw2 · Fluminense

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.70+3.4%

1X2Fluminense3.68+1.7%

1X2Draw3.17-0.2%

1X2Corinthians Paulista2.14-1.5%

BTTSYes2.03-3.4%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Expected goals

1.30Corinthians Paulista

0.87Fluminense

Over 2.5 goals37%

Both teams to score42%

Recent form

Corinthians PaulistaLLWLD

FluminenseLDWWL

Team strength rating

Corinthians Paulista

Fluminense

Most likely scorelines

1-014.9%

1-112.9%

0-011.5%

0-19.9%

2-09.7%

2-18.4%

Match DNA

Corinthians Paulista Fluminense

Key points

Corinthians Paulista have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Fluminense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Corinthians Paulista have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
Corinthians Paulista is priced at 2.144.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Corinthians Paulista win2.14Fair (-1.5%)

Double chanceCorinthians Paulista or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	11	10	4	1
1	15	13	6	2
2	10	8	4	1
3	4	4	2
4	1	1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Corinthians Paulista at 43%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts Fluminense at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.

The market leans toward Corinthians Paulista. Corinthians Paulista is priced at 2.144. The draw is priced at 3.165. Fluminense is priced at 3.68.

Corinthians Paulista have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Fluminense have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.

Corinthians Paulista have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Fluminense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

Corinthians Paulista average 1 goals per game this season. Corinthians Paulista average 55% possession. Fluminense average 1 goals per game this season. Fluminense average 58% possession.

The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Corinthians Paulista or Fluminense?

Our model rates Corinthians Paulista as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Corinthians Paulista vs Fluminense?

A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 5 Corinthians Paulista wins, 4 draws, 6 Fluminense wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Flamengo	27	17	4	6	53:22	57
2	Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras	27	16	3	8	47:21	56
3	Clube Atletico Paranaense	27	13	7	7	41:31	46
4	Bahia	27	12	5	10	42:33	46
5	Fluminense	27	12	6	9	41:35	45
6	Cruzeiro Esporte Clube	27	12	9	6	39:39	42
7	Clube Atletico Mineiro	26	11	9	6	35:31	39
8	Coritiba	27	10	9	8	37:38	38
9	Red Bull Bragantino	26	10	10	6	32:29	36
10	Santos	26	9	9	8	39:39	35
11	Sao Paulo	26	9	11	6	31:30	33
12	EC Vitoria Salvador	27	9	12	6	27:39	33
13	Corinthians Paulista	27	8	11	8	28:29	32
14	Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas	26	8	10	8	38:41	32
15	Mirassol	27	7	12	8	31:42	29
16	Gremio Porto Alegrense	26	7	12	7	28:35	28
17	CR Vasco da Gama	26	7	12	7	29:41	28
18	Sport Club Internacional	27	6	11	10	30:35	28
19	Clube do Remo	27	5	14	8	31:45	23
20	Chapecoense	26	3	15	8	28:52	17

Promotion - Copa Libertadores - (Group stage) Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification) Promotion - South America Cup Relegation - Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie B

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.