Puebla vs Deportivo Toluca: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Pueblavs
Deportivo TolucaThe model puts Deportivo Toluca at 62%. The model leans toward Deportivo Toluca. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Deportivo Toluca.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Puebla are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Deportivo Toluca are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Puebla have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Deportivo Toluca have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Puebla have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Puebla will be without Mustre, Velasco K., Navarro.
- Deportivo Toluca will be without Garcia, López É. I., Ruiz M., Simon S., Gonzalez H., Gutierrez.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 3 | |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Puebla at 17%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Deportivo Toluca at 62%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Deportivo Toluca. Puebla is priced at 5.72. The draw is priced at 4.45. Deportivo Toluca is priced at 1.47.
Puebla have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Deportivo Toluca have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 5 of their head-to-head meetings.
Puebla have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo Toluca have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo Toluca are on 5 wins in a row.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Puebla or Deportivo Toluca?
Our model rates Deportivo Toluca as the most likely outcome at 62% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Puebla vs Deportivo Toluca?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Puebla wins, 5 draws, 6 Deportivo Toluca wins.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.